#19: How to quantify the prevention of a potential goal scoring opportunity

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Chances Created and Chances Missed

Chances Created is a metric which tries to quantify the number of goal scoring opportunities that a player is directly involved in.
Opta definition is Assists + Key Passes, where Assists are passes (final touch) which result in a goal from the subsequent play and KP are passes which result in a shot that doesn’t become a goal.
So chances created can be reduced to the final passes (touches) before another player has an attempt at goal (and scores or doesn’t).
As I’ve discussed on podcast The Monthly Football Podcast, Assists alone are pretty random since you rely on the shot actually going in the goal, so chances created is a bit less noisy and should more reliably predict future assists than assists actually do due to the sheer volume of chances created and opportunities for goals to be scored rather than relying on goals actually being scored which is hard.

Chances created relies on a player to actually have a shot at the end, otherwise there is no record of the opportunity. Opta also have ‘Chance Missed’, which is defined as a big chance opportunity where the player doesn’t get a shot away. Chance missed will be attributed to the player who has the big chance and decides not to shoot, which doesn’t help the creator who provided the chance. If we assume that the miss is largely due to the player not executing an attempt, then mapping these chances missed back to the creator in addition to chances created would give credit to creating the opportunity and not punishing them for something out of their control, such as the forward deciding to delay a shot and missing the chance to.

Chances Denied Metric

As usual, chances created and most quantified statistics deal with the offensive side of the game since it’s more tangible. Shots are there and they happen, counting them is pretty straightforward. A bit less straightforward is to count the passes prior to shots, with chances created. Both of these can be tracked over many events and quantify expected outcomes based off similar situations in the past, this results in expected goals and expected assists. What is not straightforward is how to quantify the benefit of defensive actions.

We can count tackles, blocks, interceptions and recoveries, however, much like steals, blocks and rebounds in the NBA, they don’t quite tell the whole story about how a defence works. Weaker teams are asked to defend more since they have less possession, this means they have more chances to rack up interceptions, tackles and recoveries. Possession adjusting these measures helps somewhat to normalise these differences, which means that we can compare the frequency of each action assuming they all have equal chances to do so. However it’s still hard to differentiate the quality of the actions, or how important they were to each team.

Chances denied are an attempt to quantify how much of an opportunity was denied by an interception or ball recovery. In a purely defensive, denying your opponent a goal scoring opportunity, sense, recovering the ball in the middle of the pitch is not as important as recovering the ball on the edge of your own box. Expected threat, created by Karun Singh (@karun1710), is a metric which quantifies how likely a team is to score from each location on the pitch within the next 5 actions. If we assign the xT to a recovery or interception or tackle considering the location on the pitch it occurs then we may get a proxy for how important each action was. Since defensive teams will get more opportunities, it may be worth possession adjusting this also to compare like for like.

The general concept trying to be captured here is to quantify the quality of chance or potential quality of chance that is denied due to the action taken by the defender. This quantity can be given solely to the defender making the action or collectively assigned to the players involved to appreciate the team aspect of defensive play. There is a question whether to include tactical fouls in here as well as legal ball recoveries, but will save that for another time.

@TLMAnalytics

https://www.optasports.com/news/opta-s-event-definitions/
https://karun.in/blog/expected-threat.html